Faulty 4th-down play dooms Bucs in loss to last-place Saints The Bucs, losers in four of their past five games after Sunday's 24-20 setback to the Saints, started the skid with a five-point loss to the Patriots on Nov. 9. Tampa Bay, trailing by five, stalled on third and 3 from the New England 27 with two minutes remaining, back when late-game comebacks were regular occurrences. For the game, the Bucs went 5-for-13 on third down, a 38.5% success rate. It was indicative of a burgeoning problem: Their third-down offense, the NFL's best a year ago under the guidance of now-offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard, had been dismal. After the loss to New England, Tampa Bay found itself 24th in the NFL with a conversion rate of 36.5%, a jarring drop-off from their league-best 50.9% in 2024. Quarterback Baker Mayfield and receiver Emeka Egbuka both made note of the problem after the game. Though losses continued to pile up, the Bucs' third-down efficiency improved. Entering Sunday's divisional game with the last-place Saints, the Bucs were up to 15th. But amid a downpour that persisted nearly all game, the Bucs' third and fourth-down offense against New Orleans was not only reminiscent of the New England loss, it was significantly worse. Tampa Bay was 3-for-13 (23.1%) on third down and 2-for-7 (28.6%) on fourth. If you exclude a Mayfield incompletion on fourth and 15 with 2 seconds left in the first half, the Bucs were 2-for-6 on fourth down, all on fourth and 4 or shorter. The third-down play is certainly problematic, but the fourth-down failures are nearly inexplicable, especially in an era where the Eagles have essentially pioneered a failsafe for moving the chains in short-yardage situations. "We couldn't make a fourth-down play," Todd Bowles said, "and that's disheartening." Ultimately, the Bucs' fourth-down shortcomings allowed an inferior Saints team to stick around and steal a game Tampa Bay had no business letting get away. The first fourth-down attempt, on fourth and 1 in the first quarter, was a toss to Bucky Irving that went, somehow, for minus-7 yards. The Saints took over at Tampa Bay's 48 and shortly afterward attempted a field goal but missed it. Sean Tucker got a fourth-and-1 carry from the New Orleans 49 in the second quarter, but it went for no gain. On fourth and 2 from the Saints 46 in the fourth quarter, Mayfield's pass for Chris Godwin, who was just past the sticks, was broken up. New Orleans had to go only 53 yards to score what ultimately became the game-winning touchdown. Then, facing fourth and 4 from the Bucs 26 with the game on the line, Mayfield found tight end Cade Otton, but he was a yard short of the first-down marker. "(We've) got to be able to get a yard in those short yardage-situations," Mayfield said after the game. "Sometimes it's mentality, and, you know, they're going to have a free hitter on some of those, and we're going to have to make them miss or want it more. We've just got to execute in those critical situations." When the Bucs did convert on fourth down, they quickly negated their progress. Mayfield ran for 4 yards on fourth and 1 from the Saints 46 on the final draft of the first half, but that drive stalled after an offensive pass-interference call on Egbuka. A fourth-and-1 conversion from the New Orleans 19 on their penultimate possession had the Bucs poised to tie the game. But a drop by Egbuka in the end zone set up fourth and 12, and the Bucs settled for a field goal. An argument could be made that the Bucs, trailing 24-17 before the field goal, should have gone for the touchdown and the tie because a four-point deficit still required them to score a TD. But can you blame them for opting to take the fourth-down offense off the field? The Saints wouldn't have had the lead without it. Nicolas Villamil, Tampa Bay Times, published 7 December 2025