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Draft preview - Quarterbacks
Jeff Garcia is 37 years old, Chris Simms has started just 15 games for the Buccaneers, Bruce Gradkowski had a touchdown-to-interception ratio in 2006 of 1:1 and Josh McCown cost us a 6th round pick. Maybe for the first time in Jon Gruden's tenure as the Buccaneers head coach he is finally happy with his starting quarterback, just in time for his starting quarterbacks career to be entering its last few years.
It’s a shame that Gruden and Garcia didn’t find each other earlier, and the salary cap of course played a large role in this, but the fact is inescapable that Garcia hasn’t got a long career left in front of him and very soon we will be back in the same situation we have faced in previous years and that’s uncertainty surrounding our signal caller.
Some will tell you that this years QB class is talented and deep, I’m not that big of a fan of this set of quarterbacks. Opinions about the Buccaneers taking a first round quarterback this year tells you more about an individual’s perception of the team than almost anything else.
Are we a playoff team who needs a few more playmakers in order to make a serious challenge at another Super Bowl (WRs would be nice) or are we a franchise that is rebuilding and in need of some central figures which we can build around for future seasons? If you think the latter then a first round QB looks more like a possibility.
Matt Ryan, is a good QB, a tough kid, great leader by example and not far away from a prototypical quarterback prospect. By the time that the Buccaneers are on the clock I expect Matt Ryan’s press conference with his new team to have been completed.
There are two quarterbacks from the bluegrass state that have provoked much debate, Louisville’s Brian Brohm and Kentucky’s Andre Woodson. These two QBs divide opinion among observers of college football, but one thing appears certain they are dropping down draft boards at an alarming rate as over-analysis of their games has created questions that are not easily answered.
Woodson, has as big frame, a strong arm and is very accurate but yet he throws with great touch. He has produced in one of the toughest conferences in college football and has engineered some tremendous wins against superior talent compared to his own Wildcats. His throwing motion is however ugly and a major concern, he holds on to the ball for far too long, he is not extremely mobile (but moves well in the pocket) and struggles to throw on the run. Woodson has amazing potential, probably more than any other quarterback in the draft but he really has all the hallmarks of a classic boom/bust pick.
Brohm is the safer pick of these two quarterbacks, he is mechanically almost picture perfect, with a great sized frame and adequate arm strength he has many of the pre-requisites for a franchise QB. His football IQ is probably as good if not better than any other in this draft, he moves well in the pocket and has the required quick release. He’s been plagued by injuries and therefore questions over his durability remains. Brohm plays in a system that inflates his numbers but more importantly he’s not been asked to make many difficult NFL type throws, he looks to have the tools to makes these throws but hasn’t had to in four years.
Quarterbacks like Dixon, Ryan and Woodson have proved to be great leaders at the college level, however Brohm is the opposite, very quiet doesn’t interact with teammates or media, has yet show real leadership qualities which has to be a major concern for any team looking at him as the future of a franchise. I think the big difference between Woodson and Brohm is that what you see with Brohm is what you will get, I don’t feel there is great room for development however with Woodson his potential is much higher. Woodson is the high ceiling/low floor talent and Brohm is the high floor/low ceiling prospect.
If I was to write this article two months ago my two sleepers pick for this draft would have been Josh Johnson (San Diego) and Joe Flacco (Delaware), however that was two months ago and they are no longer two of colleges best kept secrets. Flacco physically has just about everything you could want in a QB. Flacco’s arm strength at times is unbelievable and there is little doubt that he can make just about any NFL throw. Flacco played in a system that didn’t require him to make many of these tough throws (similar to Brohm) his physical attributes should be enough to get him drafted somewhere in the first day, where will depend on combine and work outs.
Josh Johnson is a dual threat quarterback, and his college statistics would indicate that he’s balanced QB who can run and pass and be effective at both. That said he plays in the Pioneer league and the level of talent is never going to be mistaken for a BCS conference. He looks to have decent arm strength that would be adequate in the NFL and he is very accurate (1 interception and completed 68% of passes last year). Despite the low level of competition that Johnson’s faced he has impressed many and has drawn comparisons to Jeff Garcia.
There are a number of more recognisable names in this draft. Chad Henne (Michigan) for a long time, has not been one of my favourite college quarterbacks. However in looking back over his games in the last year, there really is quite a lot to like about his prospects as an NFL quarterback. He’s a big strong armed signal caller, who has shown the ability to make just about any throw that could be asked of him at the next level this along with a quick release makes him an intriguing prospect.
He however has zero mobility in the pocket and at times has shown a total lack of pocket awareness in regards to the pass rush. His mechanics and footwork will definitely need some work with an NFL coaching staff, which surprises me given that Michigan have in recent times populated the NFL with well prepared and successful QBs. Would like to see him be a bit more accurate and have more touch on his passes, he would be best in a run orientated offence similar to what he ran in college giving him more chance to set himself to throw, that said it would not surprise me in the least if in the long run Chad Henne is the most successful QB in this draft, however most feel he will be a backup in the NFL.
Dennis Dixon (Oregon) would have probably won the Heisman trophy last year if not for an ACL injury. Dixons athleticism is off the charts and he is one the top five leaders I saw in college football last year. His passing however is a long way behind his rushing ability, he has a tendency to throw into coverage and really lacks touch on his short-to-intermediate routes. My largest concerns apart from his durability is his lack of patience and his desire to just take off and run. I felt he showed a large amount of improvement during his senior season that was cut short by injury. Last year Dixon played 24 games for the Gulf Coast Braves and four for the Danville Braves, he might be better suited to continuing his baseball career but I am certain that an NFL team will draft him, bring him into camp to give him his chance.
Eric Ainge (Tennessee) don’t like him one bit as a prospect, he’s been very productive at the college level as a four-year starter in the SEC. Ainge is a big guy, who looks to have a strong arm but never throws the ball with any authority, it also feels like he’s been constantly injured for the last three years. In big games he’s had a tendency to make costly mistakes, these mistakes then appear to affect him for the rest of the game. Any pro potential that he has, he owes to David Cutcliffe (Eli & Peyton owe this guy a lot as well), prior to Cutcliffe’s return to Tennessee Ainge’s mechanics and footwork were at best sloppy. Some feel about Ainge like I do Henne, but I just don’t see it, I watched him in person against a weak secondary this year and was very unimpressed.
Hawaii Coach June Jones (now of SMU) went on a huge publicity campaign to get Colt Brennan the Heisman trophy, by claiming that the frontrunner was nothing but a system QB. However it’s Colt Brennan who’s a system QB, he’s talented, this isn’t like Timmy Chang’s NFL prospects, but his potential to be a bust in my opinion is high. He’s very accurate with a quick release but his lack of arm strength showed up in the BCS Bowl game against Georgia and in the Senior Bowl. Some of the throws that Brennan makes are stunning at times but he also threw 12 interceptions combined in the games against Georgia, San Jose State and Idaho. Brennan operated almost exclusively out of the shotgun with a gunslinger mentality. Brennan will also have to answer some question about his off the field conduct when he was at Colorado.
John David Booty (USC) to many has backup wrote all over him, nice mechanics that tend to break down when pressured by the pass rush, average arm strength who struggles on deep passes, he reads pass coverage’s well and has a quick release. He is definitely still developing as a passer and would be an interesting project.
QB draft pick I would like: Andre Woodson, love his potential, but he’s a big risk, currently sliding down the draft and may end up as good value.
QB draft pick I would hate: Eric Ainge, this would invoke lots of swearing from this fan.
QB I like more than most: Josh Johnson, a long term prospect, hope he is given a chance, would have included Henne here but not sure he fits well into Gruden’s system.
QB I dislike more than most: Colt Brennan, a shotgun QB who lacks arm strength, like we really need another one of those.
Summary: I don’t feel that this draft is rich with top end quarterback prospects, but it is relatively deep in the middle of the drafts first day, if Gruden wants to pick a QB to work with a develop for the future without using a valuable first round pick, this draft could produce that, if he want a franchise type pick at QB then maybe not this year.
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