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Roy Cummings, The Tampa Tribune, published 10 December 2007
The good news is they could stumble Sunday and still not fall. Their lead in the NFC South was and still is that big. Good thing, too, because the Bucs clearly stumbled against the Texans, particularly on defense.
The problem has been growing for a couple of weeks now. Somehow they avoided paying a price two weeks ago at home against Washington and last week on the road at New Orleans. This week was different.
Allowed to convert 10 of their first 15 third-down tries, the Houston Texans - the only team in the league with more players on injured reserve than Tampa Bay - tripped up the Bucs, 28-14, slowing their return to the playoffs.
They didn't slow it by much. The Bucs, who fell to 8-5 and saw their four-game winning streak snapped, can clinch their third NFC title in six seasons if the Falcons beat the Saints tonight. And if that doesn't happen, a victory by the Bucs on Sunday against the Falcons will do it.
With three games to play in the regular season and Jon Gruden promising that quarterback Jeff Garcia will return to the starting lineup next week, winning one more game to clinch the division shouldn't be a problem - unless, of course, the defense doesn't tighten up. What happened Sunday was the continuation of a season-long trend that has seen opponents convert 43.3 percent of their third downs.
That is by far the highest third-down conversion rate for Bucs opponents since Monte Kiffin took over as their coordinator 12 years ago. And the last three weeks have been particularly disturbing.
When the Texans, who started backup Sage Rosenfels at quarterback and gave most of their carries to third-team tailback Darius Walker, converted 10 of 17 third downs, it brought to 29 the number of conversions allowed during that span. With the Bucs stopping just 16 third-down conversion attempts during that period, opponents have converted 64.4 percent of their third-down tries the last three weeks. "It's definitely an area we have to improve on," linebacker Derrick Brooks said. "We just didn't do a good job of getting off the field today. They made plays and we didn't."
The Bucs made plenty of plays, even on defense. Defensive end Greg White increased his team-leading sack and forced-fumble totals to 8.5 and six, respectively, by notching three of the first and two of the latter. The Bucs also recovered a pair of fumbles, including one that was converted into a touchdown. But they also fumbled the ball away twice, and the Texans were more opportunistic, turning both recoveries into touchdowns.
The first of those scores, off an Ike Hilliard fumble late in the second quarter, allowed the Texans to take a 14-7 lead. The second, off a third-quarter Luke McCown fumble of a shotgun snap, allowed Houston to build its 28-14 lead. In between, the Bucs responded almost immediately to Andre Davis' 97-yard kickoff return for a touchdown by moving 69 yards in four plays and tightening the score on an 11-yard Earnest Graham touchdown run.
When they needed a play from the offense, though, McCown was either off target or too patient with the ball, taking four sacks. And when they needed a big play from the defense, that unit's struggles on third down cost them.
Gruden acknowledged both areas but seemed especially disappointed in McCown, who started ahead of Garcia mostly as a precaution but didn't come close to matching the effort he turned in a week ago at New Orleans. McCown completed 25 of 38 passes for 266 yards, but he didn't throw a touchdown pass, largely because he was off target on back-to-back third-quarter deep throws to Joey Galloway, who had beaten his coverage on both occasions.
"When you get the opportunity, you've got to take advantage of those premium looks," McCown said. "That was big for us. That could have tied the game there if we hit those."
The Bucs had another chance to tie the game one drive later, thanks to White's third sack and Jovan Haye's recovery of a Rosenfels fumble. On third-and-6 from the Bucs' 38-yard line, though, center John Wade fired a shotgun snap that McCown wasn't expecting and the ball wound up back in the hands of the Texans, who turned the takeaway into a touchdown.
Miscommunications like that and the one that resulted in McCown throwing an interception against the Saints last week probably will disappear once Garcia returns to the lineup. What happens on third down remains to be seen. Bucs defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin didn't seem too concerned about it Sunday, saying Rosenfels was simply better than the Bucs thought he'd be.
Gruden took a similar approach. He doesn't deny that there are some areas that must improve if the Bucs are to make a run through the playoffs, but he seems content with the direction the team is headed.
"We do have the train on the track again," he said. "We're competing every week and we're looking forward to getting our quarterback back here for next week's game. There were some areas today that we weren't good enough in that we have to get better at to be a great football team, and that's what everybody in our locker room wants."
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